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Global warming


 A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend 

For 2018–2022, the probabilistic forecast indicates a warmer than normal period, with respect to the forced trend.


2018-2022 expected to be abnormally hot years 

Using a new method, the study shows that at the global level, 2018-2022 may be an even hotter period than expected based on current global warming.


The Next Five Years Could Be Seriously Hotter Than Normal, Say Scientists

 "Let's be clear, being 58 percent confident that 2018 will be 0.02 degrees Celsius above the forced trend . . . is not practically significant (even if it might be skillful)," Gavin Schmidt wrote in an email.


 Stefan Rahmstorf


 Andrew Freedman 

July 2018 was third-warmest such month on Earth, NASA finds


  As panic about climate change sets in, I’m thinking about escape – to Canada

 The New York Times has devoted an entire edition of its magazine, some 30,000 words, to a terrifying piece about climate change.


 Domino-effect of climate events could move Earth into a ‘hothouse’ state

Fifty years ago, this would be dismissed as alarmist, but now scientists have become really worried.

Johan Rockström, executive director, Stockholm Resilience Centre


Stefan Rahmstorf

"For many scientists, this is the year they started living climate change rather than just studying it." Excellent article on climate change in the NYT: 




 Lars Kaleschke

 What‘s this? Now you could possibly sail up to the northernmost tip of Greenland.



 Thinner than usual sea ice north of Greenland is pushed away from coast by winds.



Zack Labe

Sea ice extent in this region is a satellite-era record low for the date (previously held by 2016).



Scorching Summer in Europe Signals Long-Term Climate Changes

 “In the past, we had this kind of heat wave once every 10 years, and now we have them every two years or something like that,” said François-Marie Bréon.


  Met Office‏@ metoffice 12h

 5 to 6 degrees above average!


 Climate change to cause humid heatwaves that will kill even healthy people 



 Unsurvivable heatwaves could strike heart of China by end of century 

Many of the region’s 400 million people are farmers and have little alternative to working outside.



Guy Walton

 This spell's trouble for Europe


Zack Labe 

Arctic sea ice extent has now dropped below what used to be the average annual minimum in the 1980s... 



UN Security Council session on climate-related security risks

It is clear that climate change is a real threat and it is proceeding at a relentless pace. While the impact of climate change may be spread unevenly across different regions today, no country will be spared from its consequences in the long-term.


 Mika Rantanen @mikarantane Jul 19

The Scandinavian ridge is not going anywhere, at least if you believe the latest CFSv2 weekly forecast. Especially the signal on week 2 is impressive.


Yet another hot day far up in the Arctic circle – northern Finland already at 33 °C by 11:30 UTC (July 18)!



2018 Global Heat So Far

Globally, the past four years have been the hottest four years on record, and 2018 so far is coming in as the 4th hottest.



 Japan Reels From Heavy Rains; Dozens Killed and Millions Urged to Evacuate 


At least 49 killed, 48 missing as torrential rain pounds Japan

 By Saturday morning, more than 1.6 million people had been ordered to evacuate their homes for fear of flooding and further landslides, with 3.1 million more advised to leave, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency said.


 Central America’s Climate Refugees

Climate change is a key factor forcing families to flee from Central America and Mexico.


The First Awful Heat Wave of the Summer Is Here

The hellish weather isn’t expected to break before the end of the week. 



It's been 30 years since the first alarm on global warming was sounded

After leading NASA climate scientist James Hansen told the US Congress 30 years ago this week global warming was already worsening heatwaves.




Global Warming in South Asia: 800 Million at Risk

 Climate change could sharply diminish living conditions for up to 800 million people in South Asia, a region that is already home to some of the world’s poorest and hungriest people.





Etienne Kapikian (@EKMeteo)  Twitter

29.1°C ce 9 juin à Hatanga (latitude 72°N !), +20°C/norm !
RECORD pour une 1re quinzaine de juin > 28.8° 15-06-2013




Nation’s Hottest May on Record Leaves Dust Bowl in the Dust

After one of the coldest Aprils in U.S. history, last month delivered a stunning switch—the warmest May for the contiguous U.S. in records going back to 1895.



 April was Earth’s 400th warmer-than-normal month in a row

Do you remember February 1985? Perhaps you were rocking out to Wham! and Foreigner while teasing your bangs. Or maybe you hadn’t even been born.


  In the Arctic, the Old Ice Is Disappearing

But as the old ice disappears, the newer ice left behind is more vulnerable to rising temperatures.


 Gavin Schmidt‏Verified account @ClimateOfGavin 


 Extreme drought for May in the Czech Republic - Czech Hydrometeorological Institute


Climate change: 1.5°C is closer than we imagine 

Global warming of 1.5°C is imminent, likely in just a decade from now. That’s the stunning conclusion to be drawn from a number of recent studies.


 Pakistan has gone from water surplus to water-stressed 

Pakistan is a country facing depleting water resources mainly due to climate change and poor water resource management.   


NOAA — Possibility of El Niño by winter ‘nearing 50 percent’

The El Niño weather pattern, associated with warmer and wetter weather than usual that may give rise to damaging conditions, could emerge by the 2018-19 Northern Hemisphere winter. 


Cape Town's water disaster averted due to public shaming, police crackdown

A historic three-year drought has forced residents of this coastal city of 4 million to radically change their relationship with water as city restrictions limit each person to using no more than 50 liters, or 13.2 gallons, a day




Atmospheric CO2 levels in April hit highest average ever recorded

Last year, a sensor at Hawaii's Mauna Loa Observatory recorded a CO2 reading above 410 ppm. It was the first time CO2 concentrations had been that high in millions of years. Now, for the first time, CO2 concentration averaged above the 410 mark for an entire month. 



 3°C may double Europe’s drought risk

And 400 million people could feel the heat as the water content in the European soils begins to evaporate. The worst droughts will last three to four times longer than they did in the last decades of the last century.


 Simulations suggest poor tropical regions likely to suffer more from global warming

The researchers report that they saw the biggest impacts in places like the Amazon Basin, Southeast Asia, Australia and some parts of Africa. 


 Hottest April Day Ever Was Probably Monday in Pakistan: a Record 122.4°F

Even in Pakistan, no stranger to blistering heat, the temperature on Monday stood out: 122.4 degrees Fahrenheit



  The military paid for a study on sea level rise. The results were scary.

 The research also has ramifications for the U.S. military, whose massive Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site sits, in part, on the atoll island of Roi-Namur — a part of the Marshall Islands and the focus of the research.



40 degrees in April: Why this autumn has felt more like summer

 The southern states of Australia have been experiencing unseasonably hot weather this autumn.


Meet America's first climate change refugees, whose island is disappearing under rising seas 

 The vanishing of Isle de Jean Charles, home to members of the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw tribe, might take another decade or even five. On the other hand, one more big storm could finally end its viability for human occupation permanently. 



The Biggest Refugee Camp Braces for Rain: ‘This Is Going to Be a Catastrophe’

Nearly 600,000 Rohingya Muslim refugees live in the camp, at Cox’s Bazar, near the southern tip of Bangladesh. Cyclones, which can occur from March to July, would considerably worsen the situation beyond the dangers of flooding and landslides. 



 Hotter, Drier, Hungrier: How Global Warming Punishes the World’s Poorest

According to recent research, the region dried faster in the 20th century than at any time over the last 2,000 years. Four severe droughts have walloped the area in the last two decades, a rapid succession that has pushed millions of the world’s poorest to the edge of survival.



Is India's Bangalore doomed to be the next Cape Town?

The Bangalore water supply and sewerage board (BWSSB), the agency that provides drinking water and manages the city's sewage system, acknowledges that in 2014, a survey predicted Bangalore was on the verge of running out of water.




Arctic has warmest winter on record: 'It's just crazy, crazy stuff'

The region experienced its warmest winter on record. Sea ice hit record lows for the time of year, new US weather data revealed on Tuesday.


Icy Europe, balmy North Pole: the world upside down

 On Sunday, meanwhile, air temperatures at the North Pole—which won't see the Sun until March—rose above freezing.
"In relative terms, that's a 30 C (54 degrees Fahrenheit) temperature anomaly," Robert Rohde, lead scientist at Berkeley Earth in Washington, tweeted. 




It will be warmer at the North Pole next week than much of Europe, as sea ice melts

In the Bering Sea in particular, sea ice has been at record low levels for much of the fall and winter. As if spooked by a ghost, much of the ice that had been covering the region vanished during February, a time when it would normally be at its peak extent and thickness.



Arctic warming: scientists alarmed by 'crazy' temperature rises

The north pole gets no sunlight until March, but an influx of warm air has pushed temperatures in Siberia up by as much as 35C above historical averages this month. Greenland has already experienced 61 hours above freezing in 2018 - more than three times as many hours as in any previous year.



Long-Term Warming Trend Continued in 2017: NASA, NOAA



Alaska's Bering Sea Lost a Third of Its Ice in Just 8 Days

Globally, sea ice is at record lows as the polar regions warm faster than the rest of the planet. Along the Alaska coast, it's affecting people's lives.


Helping refugees help themselves



What's Actually Behind Cape Town's Water Crisis

In 2008, Barcelona came close. Sao Paulo, the biggest city in the Western Hemisphere, teeters on the brink. The government of Indonesia has given serious consideration to abandoning chunks of Jakarta, which is paradoxically sinking below sea level, drowning in torrential rains, and running out of potable water.



Climate change 'will create world's biggest refugee crisis'

“If Europe thinks they have a problem with migration today … wait 20 years,” said retired US military corps brigadier general Stephen Cheney. “See what happens when climate change drives people out of Africa – the Sahel [sub-Saharan area] especially – and we’re talking now not just one or two million, but 10 or 20 [million]. They are not going to south Africa, they are going across the Mediterranean.”



Floods Leave Paris Contemplating a Wetter Future

PARIS — Must France simply get used to flooding?

The Seine River overflowed its banks again in Paris and several nearby cities this week, a mere 18 months after reaching its highest level since 1982.



Billion-Dollars Storms: Is This the New Normal?

The superstorms and wildfires of 2017 cost a record-breaking $306 billion.